Weather forecasts and the accuracy of such forecasts can have significant impacts on operations which are weather dependent, such as operations performed by the airline industry. For example, predictions of short-term variations of vital boundary layer conditions at airports, such as for visibility and ceiling, impact departures and arrivals at airports across the nation and are important to the safe and economic operation of airlines. Airline dispatchers must account for the possibility of delays due to impeding weather phenomena and decide whether extra fuel should be loaded onto an aircraft. It is important to note that the decision to carry extra fuel necessitates additional fuel to carry this extra weight; additional fuel which will incur an extra cost because it will be “burned off” en route.
Traditionally, these decisions of assigning fuel carriage have been made using National Weather Service (NWS) issued Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs), which supply categorical forecasts of weather for aviation interests. The forecasts are categorical in that they provide a “yes” or “no” type of prediction. These traditional TAFs suffer from problems of being subjective because they generally depend on the whims of individual forecasters who have varying attitudes toward risk (e.g., some forecasters may be more conservative than others). Further, the same TAF is generally applied to all aircraft regardless of operating costs associated with the aircraft and its particular flight plan. For example, an airline operating a B777 and an airline operating a twin otter may use the same TAF.
Therefore, there is a need for a more accurate and cost effective system and method for making decisions as to whether extra fuel is to be carried by an aircraft for a particular flight. It is to such a system and method that the present invention is directed.